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Let me say first off that I’m looking back at my picks and I hate them, because I’m ignoring one of the most basic facts in sports:

When picking college basketball, look for reasons to pick against the home team rather than reasons to pick for the visitor. This is based on the general consensus that college basketball has a bigger home court advantage than any other sport.

HOWEVER… as they say on the Street… “the trend is your friend” and I’ve picked several teams that are momentum plays whether they’re at home or on the road. Not to mention the pain incurred by going against your gut, then watching as your gut was right.

Plus, I haven’t done a Pickstravaganza in a while. Here it is:

(1 unit) Marquette - 2 vs. West Virginia
(3 units) James Madison + 20 @ George Mason
(3 units) Indiana - 4.5 @ Penn St
(1 unit) ‘Cuse - 3 vs. ‘Nova
(2 units) Kansas - 11 @ Iowa St
(2 units) Wiscy - 11 @ N-Wern
(2 units) UCLA - 2.5 @ USC
(4 units) So Illy - 2.5 vs. Mo State
(5 units) Texas - 9 vs. OU
(4 units) Texas Tech + 1 @ Baylor
(3 units) Illy St + 3.5 @ Drake
(3 units) Drexel + 2.5 @ Old Dominion
(1 unit) Minny + 11 @ Iowa
(4 units) Washington + 1 @ Cal
(3 units) Indy St - 3 vs. Bradley
(4 units) Washington St + 1 @ Stanford
(1 unit) Xavier - 5 @ SLU
(3 units) ‘Zaga - 4 @ Santa Clara
(1 unit) USF - 1.5 @ Loyola Marymount
(2 units) Nevada + 2.5 @ Hawaii

I liked the way Marquette looked against UConn, snapping their 31-game home court winning streak.

James Madison is getting 20 at George Mason. Even if the Patriots were a great team (which they are not), this is a huge number during a conference season. Maybe JMU totally eats it, but I’m comfortable that I’m capturing the fatter part of the probability curve with 20 points on my side.

Indiana is one of my “trend is your friend” teams. As I’ve said before, they impressed me earlier in the season and they had two convincing wins against Michigan State and Purdue this week by a combined 49 point margin. As long as Penn State is Penn State… Hoosiers in a walk on the road.

The ‘Cuse is another “trend-friend” squad. Two good wins this week against Marquette and Rutgers, and they return to the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome tonight.

Kansas… maybe my ultimate “trending” team. They are playing really well right now, and their athletic and scoring ability is just scary. They’re giving 11 on the road at Iowa State, and I probably would taken them all the way up to 17. If they even put a money line on this one I’d consider it a nearly risk-free proposition. I’m now going to move on to the next game before I start thinking about Oral Bob and DePaul.

Wisconsin is another team that’s streaking after handling Ohio State earlier in the week. Wiscy makes a statement today against N-Wern.

UCLA is just a gut feel that is in direct opposition the gut feel I have about USC. USC is a good team and could easily win this outright, but I still like Ben Howland and the Bruins with a tight spread in a road game to which their fans can easily travel.

I can’t even believe I’m picking So Illy, but it’s the ultimate gut pick. They’ve had problems with Mo State in the last few years, but I like them to take care of business at home. Missouri State is riding high, but their shooters have been fairly comfortable so far. Look for the Salukis D to smother and frustrate Blake Ahearn and Tyler Cheney.

If Kansas isn’t my ultimate trending team, then Texas is. Don’t get me wrong… it horrifies me to put that kind of certainty level on a Rick Barnes team that at random intervals appears to play to their weaknesses (shot selection) instead of strengths (size, athleticism, inside presence). But not today - UT embarrasses a really bad OU team in The Drum.

I’ve watched some Texas Tech basketball recently, and they’ve impressed me with their intensity, ball handling, and passing ability (not that you should expect anything less from Bobby Knight). I think the Red Raiders squeak one out against a Baylor team that tested the Aggies earlier in the week.

Illy State beats Drake. Two bottom feeders in the Valley, I gotta go with talent over coaching.

The Drexel Dragons get back on track against ODU after having a nice 10-game streak snapped in OT by Hofstra. Thanks to George Mason’s Final 4 run, I think the teams in the Colonial smell at-large bids in March… which is gonna make that conference a free-for-all like the Valley was last year.

I know that Minnesota is a team in shambles, but an 11 point spread between two non-contenders in the Big Ten is too much. No guarantees, but the odds are that a mediocre Iowa team has trouble covering 11 against Minny.

Washington is struggling so far in conference, but they’re a dangerous team. They have solid big men, and Pondexter can play with anyone in the country. I’m thrilled to get points with the Huskies, even though Cal is a good team.

Indy State is on a roll as well, unexpectedly hanging near the top of the Valley. I say the Trees keep it up and handle a mediocre Bradley team in Terre Haute.

Washington State looked GREAT in their win against Arizona earlier in the week, and I love getting a point with them against a team like the Cardinal.

Xavier… eh. Just a feeling since I’ve been impressed with them multiple times this year (particularly against ‘Bama). Drew Lavender is fun to watch. Xavier slays SLU.

‘Zaga has superior talent in Heytvelt, Raivio, and Pargo that Santa Clara can’t match. Throw in secret weapon and RFS all-name team Pierre-Marie Altidor-Cespedes Jingleheimer-Schmidt, and you’ve a got a double-digit win.

USF over Loyola Marymount? Sure! Wait - are you asking me or telling me?

I think Nevada is still a good enough team to take down Hawaii even if All-American and centerpiece Nick Fazekas doesn’t play because of a sprained ankle. This is definitely a gamble, but with a quality team and quality coaching I generally assume that depth is greater than the Vegas line assumes. Show me something, Wolfpack!

Popularity: 73% [?]

I like this whole “Top 5 Plus 1″ (T5P1) idea.

But what I like even more is that RFS Chief Basketball Commentator Dan “Chitwood” McGillicuddy dropped a top 5 into my email (rumblin@gmail.com) that is worthy of a write-up…

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THE RFS ALL-”WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN” TEAM:
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CAPTAIN: Len Bias, 6′8″ SF, Boston Celtics - Since he never played in an NBA game, it requires a lot of extrapolation to name him captain of this squad… but that’s something I’m willing to do.

Today, it’s common for forwards to shoot 20-footers and have muscular physiques. Twenty years ago those things were pretty much unheard of, and that’s what makes Lenny Bias so special. Before I start rambling, watch the video (fair warning to Celtic and Terp fans to grab a hanky and a blanket, because I’m a fan of neither and it got chilly in the room):

Two bona fide “holy crap!” moments on the blocked shot at 1:25 and the still photo at 3:30, and a “couldn’t have said it better myself” when Seth Davis gave the short and sweet comparison to Michael Jordan.

Next time you watch college (or the pros, for that matter), keep track of how many 6′8″ guys you see with a shot that sweet… that can jump like that… and aren’t afraid to take it to the rack.

Bottom line - as Chitwood noted in his email to me, “a horrible tragedy that the Celtics franchise has yet to recover from”. I can’t even think of an analogy that is sufficiently accurate, so I won’t even try. Perhaps “the gut punch by which all gut punches shall be measured” comes close, since a case could be made that the Lakers never would have Three-Peated (and on down the line through Detroit, Chicago, and Houston) if Mr. Bias was involved.

One last thing - it’s been said that Len Bias did more in one day to reduce drug use among teenage boys in the 80s than Nancy Reagan and “Just Say No” did in 10 years. And I know that’s true.

Perhaps that’s the silver lining of his tragedy. If you want to read more about him, check out Wikipedia.

Micheal Ray Richardson, 6′5″ PG, Warrior/Knicks/Nets - The 4th pick in the 1978 draft out of the University of Montana, “Sugar” led the league in steals and assists in his second season (he was only the second player ever to accomplish that feat).

Yes, you read that correctly.

Chitwood writes “watch the tape on this guy - he was close to Magic’s ability to command a team and be a playmaker”. In addition he was also compared by coach Willis Reed to all-time Knick great Walt Frazier.

In the end, however, “Sugar” was used up by a drug problem and the league suspensions that came with that problem (it’s a whole other topic, but the NBA at that time was hyper-sensitive to drug use since that’s what comprised a large part of public opinion about the league).

For more info, check out Whatever Happened to Micheal Ray?

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Roy Tarpley, 6′11″ C, Dallas Mavericks - Another story of a promising rookie that couldn’t handle the success. A star at Michigan, he was drafted high, made the All-Rookie team, and had problems with drugs and injuries. Suspended from the league, he played overseas and attempted an NBA comeback in the early 90s, but was suspended again.

David Thompson, 6′4″ SG, Nuggets/Sonics - Nicknamed “Luke Skywalker” because of a reported 48-inch vertical jump, Thompson and Norm Sloan popularized the “alley-oop” at North Carolina State.

In one of basketball’s great tragedies, David Thompson played college basketball during the era where dunks were outlawed (the “Lew Alcindor” rule… although Thompson did jam one during his final collegiate game - a technical foul was called and the shot was disallowed… thank God they invented the breakaway rim).

As you might have guessed… he struggled with drugs and alcohol. In a somewhat famous incident, he severely injured his knee falling down the steps of the legendary Studio 54.

Chitwood remembers DT dropping 50 on the Rockets in the early 80s, and RFS his ownself remembers listening to his father talk about how David Thompson “could really get up there”.

Perhaps the best way to end this summary is to note the following:

David Thompson is considered by many to be the greatest player in the history of the Atlantic Coast Conference. If you don’t know what that means… think Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Ralph Sampson, Christian Laettner… and Len Bias.

Connie Hawkins, 6′8″ F, Pipers/Suns/Lakers/Hawks - This guy might be the biggest tragedy of them all. A poor kid from Bed-Stuy, Connie was - and by many accounts still is - the greatest NYC playground legend of all-time.

He got caught up in a gambling scandal at Iowa that - from everything I’ve read - was absolutely ridiculous and never implicated him in any wrongdoing. He was kept from receiving legal counsel, and his career was hampered.

Either way, he makes my top 5.

And finally… the “plus one”…

Marvin “Bad News” Barnes, 6′8″ F, St. Louis Spirit - One of the many free spirits that inhabited the ABA, Marvin is best-known for his inclusion in one of Bob Costas’ stories:

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The team was flying from Louisville to St. Louis. The scheduled departure was 8AM, while the scheduled arrival was 7:59AM. Of course, the 8AM was Eastern Time, and the 7:59 was Central Time, but Marvin didn’t care about that.

After looking at the ticket, Marvin turns to Bob and says

“Man, I ain’t gettin’ in no damn time machine!”
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Who knows if that actually happened the way Bob said since he’s a publicity-hungry little monkey. But I still like it.

In fact… I said it this past weekend.

In Summary…

THE RFS ALL-TIME “WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN TEAM”:

Len Bias
Micheal Ray Richardson
David Thompson
Connie Hawkins
Roy Tarpley
plus
Marvin “Bad News” Barnes

Also Considered: Mitchell Wiggins, Lewis Lloyd, William Bedford, and John Lucas (submitted by Chitwood), plus Earl “Goat” Manigault, Herman “Helicopter” Knowings, Joe Hammond “The Destroyer”, and Jackie Jackson (by RFS his ownself)

Popularity: 78% [?]

Some quick notes from yesterday’s action:

Texas A&M struggled with a feisty Kansas State, but ended up getting the win (which tells me a lot about the squads ability to gut it out and get a W when they’re not playing their best). Huggy Bear is apparently reading

RFS now, since the Mildcats shifted much of their PG duties. Despite losing Bill Walker early to what appeared to be a knee injury, K-State impressed me with their play in a hostile environment. They were way better than the team I saw earlier in the week against Xavier.

Creighton rode Isaac Miles and Anthony Tolliver to a second half run and a convincing win at Evansville. With the exceptions of away games at Missouri State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, and Wichita State, I wouldn’t expect Creighton to be getting points in any more games this year (barring significant injuries).

I only saw the last 10 minutes of the game, but LSU appeared to be in control against UConn. “Never tested”, if you read the racing forms. Not unexpected, since I think that was only UConn’s second road game and Baton Rouge is a brutal venue. UConn will still hold their own with the top 4 teams in the Big East and destroy the weak bottom 2/3 of the conference.

Washington State controlled ‘Zony, but gave it away at the end of regulation with an out of control point guard and allowing some big 3s (I’ll admit they were contested). No worries in Pullman though, because they controlled overtime as well and stormed the court at the end. Very few things bring a tear to RFS’ eye like a good old fashioned court-storming against perenially overrated, underperforming ‘Zony. I was very impressed by Chase Budinger though - if he stays in school he will easily be an All-American.

I didn’t watch Indy State, Okie State, or Bradley. But the Trees won outright (as hypothesized right here), the Cowboys missed covering by a 1/2 point, and Bradley made Drake Illy State’s buddy in the MVC cellar.

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TODAY’S PICKS:

(2 units) Wichita State + 5.5 @ Missouri State - This pick is strictly spread-based. While I understand that college basketball is a home court advantage unlike any other in sports, these teams are too evenly matched to hang 5 1/2 points around Mo State’s neck. 3 would be tougher. Plus, you have to consider the fact that Mark Turgeon and the Shocks have OWNED Barry Hinson and the Bears for quite some time. Maybe that means Mo State is due, but I’m willing to say there’s a 60% chance that the Shocks are ready to get back on track and continue climbing the Valley standings. Either way… 5 1/2 is too much.

(2 units) Michigan State + 5.5 @ Indiana - Many of the same comments as the previous game regarding the spread. I haven’t seen the Spartans play since they beat Texas early in the season, and Indiana impressed me with their pressure D against a feisty Southern Illinois team. Unless there’s some Michigan State injuries of which I’m not aware, they can win this one outright. Either way… 5 1/2 is too much.

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Otto the Orange says “Just keep Wu away from me!”

(1 unit) Syracuse + 3 @ Marquette - If there’s one team that I hate picking more than Arizona, it’s probably Syracuse. Particularly on the road, where you have the UConn-type “hey Coach, I thought we were playing every game at home this year” factor. To put a stat on it, ‘Cuse has played 15 games so far this year, and ONE of them was on the road. At Canisius. For comparative purposes, Wichita State plays it’s 15th game of the year today - it’s 8th road game.

However, ‘Cuse does have a scary amount of talent, a sense that they belong at the very top of the Big East, and a loss this week to Pitt in the Carrier Dome. They need this one, so I’ll take the points.

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Cumulative Prognostication Record: 42-33-4 (56%)

Cumulative Prognostication Net Units: +6
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Popularity: 6% [?]

As a new feature on RFS, we’re doing Top 5 Plus 1 (T5P1)on any and everything imaginable. Send in your thoughts on future lists, although I may have to run them by Shooter or Chitwood first.

The first T5P1 covers something I alluded to in my NBA Notebook #1 - my “All Warrior Team”.

I originally thought I was going to do college only, but then I decided to do NBA only. THEN I decided to do a mixture. To summarize… this topic is open for comment. I looked at lists of All-Americans from past years (which is ridiculously difficult to find - if you have a good link for historical NCAA basketball reference, send it to me), and then I thought about guys that may not have made the list but that I would have loved to play on the same team with.

Here’s what I came up with (in no particular order, after Sir Charles):

Charles Barkley (aka The Round Mound of Rebound) - Undisputed, and Captain of the All-Warrior Team. Some guys have been tougher players, some guys have been better players. But nobody was this far out on the “efficient frontier” of those two criteria.

If you have a problem with this, please see the “Fredo” commentary in this post.

Sir Charles played at Auburn and was quite possibly the most overachieving (given his 6′5″ height versus his 3/4 position and his body composition) NBA player in the history of the league.

I posted the NBA Superstars video of him in NBA Notebook #1. Awesome. But this one is better.

Holy crap. I think I started sweating while watching those 76ers highlights. Two thoughts on the video:

(1) The block at 0:54 was awesome

(2) His step-back 3-pointer on David Robinson at 2:52 was something to behold (I witnessed it in person). I happen to think that David Robinson is one of the classiest individuals I’ve ever seen, but… I couldn’t help but chuckle a little bit when:

(a) He and Barkley came into that playoff game as the #1 and #2 MVP contenders

(b) Barkley outplayed him, including that game-winning dagger, and

(c) During a timeout just before Barkley hit that shot, the “David Robinson #50 MVP” banner that was hanging from the bottom of the scoreboard… unraveled onto midcourt. It seemed like the basketball gods were casting their vote.

Kenyon Martin (aka K-Mart) - This guy always gets after it. I was never a huge Cincy fan, but I always tuned in to watch K-Mart play. I was genuinely disappointed when he broke his leg.

And if you’re a loyalty type of guy, you probably respect the fact that - after Bob Huggins was fired by Cincy - K-Mart told his PR guys to delete from the program the fact that he graduated from Cincinnati. Some good dunks in the video, but they don’t get across the “warrior” part.

(NOTE - lots of language in the music playing with the video)

The guy plays with emotion. I like that.

Brian Cardinal - This is my obscure reference, but for anybody who watched a lot of college ball in the 90s… you know what I’m talking about. This guy was a 6′8″ or so forward that was on the floor after loose balls more than anybody I’ve ever seen in my life. Couldn’t jump, couldn’t run, couldn’t… anything. But he threw ‘bows and got on the floor and got it done.

A classic, prototypical Gene Keady-type of player. I have absolutely no connection to Purdue whatsoever (except for an encounter with Gene Keady when I was 12, but that’s another story), but I always watched Cardinal when I had the chance.

Just trust me on this one. Plus, he gets bonus points for looking like a 35 year old man when he was a senior in college.

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Calvin Murphy - I don’t have any video, I don’t have any firsthand knowledge, and I don’t have anything else to prove this.

Except that I’ve read from multiple sources that just about everybody in the ABA and NBA was afraid of 5′9″ Calvin Murphy.

When Kermit Washington knocked out Rudy T, bystanders worried that Calvin Murphy - one of Rudy’s best friends - would actually KILL Kermit. Who knows if that was true (Kermit was 6′9″), but the very fact that people were worried about it says something.

There are other stories I’ve heard as well, so Calvin gets the only Guard spot on my All-Warrior team.

Xavier McDaniel (aka X-Man) - Last, but certainly not least, is the X-Man. The first collegiate player to lead the nation in scoring and rebounding in the same season, he is RFS his ownself’s favorite college basketball player of all-time (I watched him play in person).

Believe me, there was nobody like X. I wish I could find some video, but I honestly haven’t seen a player since him attack the other team like he did. Literally.

Check out this picture of him choking the ever-loving crap out of Wes Matthews in the middle of a game. Can you imagine the s#!tstorm that would occur if something like that happened today? Think Spree/Carleisimo times 100.

I said… GIMME YOUR LUNCH MONEY!

On top of that, he was an All-Star and a 20 point scorer.

And on top of THAT, he was a movie star (probably the greatest sports cameo in history in the movie Singles; Kareem in Airplane doesn’t count as a cameo, if you’re wondering).

Additional stories about the X-Man:

-Legend has it that when he arrived on campus during his freshman year at Wichita State, he walked up to All-Americans and bookend junior forwards Antoine Carr and Cliff Levingston and said

“So which one of you guys is going to sit down?”

-In a heated rivalry game against Tulsa, he had to be restrained from going after forward Brian Rahilly. Wide-eyed, yelling, and pointing his finger from across the court… and that was just heading into the tunnel at halftime. I’ll ask again - when’s the last time you saw something like that happen in college basketball?

-During his 1984-1985 quest to become the first player to lead the nation in scoring and rebounding, Bradley Braves coach Stan Albeck mentioned to a sportswriter that he thought X’s stats were padded at home games.

Bad move, Stan.

According to legend, after X heard about it he paced up and down the aisle of the plane for the entire trip to Peoria, fuming. According to fact, he dropped 30 points and pulled down 20 boards against Bradley.

-When asked why he had punched an opposing team’s player, X replied:

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“Well… I saw he was coming at me, so I hit him first in self-defense.”
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I think my “Plus One” is going to be Allen Iverson. The beating that guy has taken, combined with his stature, combined with his stats, combined with stuff like the fact that a 5′11″ guy led the NBA in FT’s during one season is just absolutely ridiculous.

So, in summary:

THE RFS ALL-WARRIOR TEAM:

Charles Barkley
Xavier McDaniel
Kenyon Martin
Calvin Murphy
Brian Cardinal
and
Allen Iverson

Also considered - Warren Jabali, Wes Unseld, Maurice Lucas

Let me know what you think (especially you, RFS Chief Basketball Commentator Dan “Chitwood” McGillicuddy). I’m sure I left somebody out…

As always, use the comment box or send questions. I have a new email address for the website - rumblin@gmail.com

Popularity: 30% [?]

This one’s for you, Huggy Bear!

(1 unit) Texas A&M - 13.5 vs. Kansas State - That spread is a testament to just how much Billy Clyde’s Fightin’ Texas Aggies have been drilling people (101-27 vs. Grambling, for example). If only there were some way to search for things on the internet, I would (1) look up where the Aggies rank in terms of victory margin, and (2) name that search-mechanism something whimsical like “Smoogle” or something.

Anyhoo - I hate that spread (only because a 25 point margin can shrink to 13 pretty quickly once guys abandon the offense and start jacking it up), but I love the dynamics. The Mildcats have Bill Walker, who will continue to develop as a force during the conference season (since he wasn’t eligible until Dec. 17th). The Aggies have great defense, a potent offense, experience from taking #1 UCLA to the wire in SoCal, and a team concept.

Kansas State has none of those. In addition, K-State has a point guard that should be at the 2-spot. Just watch and you’ll understand - he’s not a point guard. My prediction is that the Aggies force at least 5 turnovers off him and score 20 points off the break.

Gig ‘Em!!!

I was rolling my eyes at first, but I ended up being impressed after (1) he switched hands, and (2) I tried to do it.

(2 units) Creighton + 1 @ Evansville - Creighton has absolutely CRUSHED my picks so far this year. But I still believe in them for the following reasons:

Nate Funk is warrior.

Tolliver is one of the best big men in the country.

Dana Altman is one of the best coaches in the country.

Creighton’s talent level is superior.

E-ville is… E-ville. Don’t get me wrong - I love the program, but there’s no way they should be favored at home against Creighton.

Although… they do have one of the best mascots in college basketball. His name is Ace Purple, and he is - I am not making this up - based on a turn-of-the-century riverboat gambler. If anybody finds a link to a picture of the living mascot, please post the link in the comments section. Either way, he looks like a pimp and has a feather in his hat:

You Guys Playin’ Cards?

(2 units) LSU - 5 vs. UConn - I’m not particularly impressed with UConn, but in my opinion LSU has a killer instinct that UConn doesn’t. This is going to be a wildly entertaining, up-and-down game, but I think LSU handles them unless Big Buh-Davis (my new nickname for Glenn “Big Baby” Davis) gets into foul trouble. Watch it if you can.

(1 unit) Washington State + 2 vs. ‘Zony - Probably a stupid pick, but there’s never a bad time to pick against ‘Zony.

(1 unit) Indy State + 6 @ Illy State - Illy State has their backs to the wall, being winless in conference with a nice amount of talent on their squad. But 6 is too much. Look for the Trees to very possibly win this one outright and stake a claim to the upper echelon of the feeding frenzy that is the Missouri Valley Conference.

(1 unit) Oklahoma State - 13.5 vs. Baylor - I don’t have many thoughts on this other than “uhhhhh… Okie State is gonna whomp ‘em”. Baylor is better than people think and will test some teams this year though.

(1 unit) Drake - 3 vs. Bradley - Part of me says that Bradley is ready to rebound from the butt-stomping they received at Wichy-Taw State earlier in the week, but the rest of me says that Drake is winless and therefore has their backs against the wall and is very aware that Jeremy Crouch is still out for Bradley. Crouch is Bradley’s best guard, and Drake and Dr. Tom Davis play a lot of full-court pressure D. Do the math. Also, circle this date on the calendar because Drake is only favored in a game once every few decades.

Happy Hunting, and check back here in future for a new RFS basketball feature.

Sincerestly,

RFS

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Cumulative Prognostication Record: 38-30-4 (56%)

Cumulative Prognostication Net Units: +3
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Popularity: 7% [?]